It's Tim(e) to Bee deciding

In that little, insular corner of the blogosphere interested in such things, there has been a great deal of speculation the last few months as to whether Republican Tim Bee, member of the Arizona State Senate from District 30 and that and body's current President, was likely to run against incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords next year for the US Congressional seat from Arizona District 8.

If so, these numbers can't be something he's smiling about this morning.

Giffords managed to raise over $580,000 this last quarter, and has over $900,000 on hand already. Those are big numbers. Scary numbers.

To put it in perspective, I am fairly certain the money Giffords raised just this past quarter exceeds that raised by her opponent in the last election, Randy Graf, for his entire primary campaign. Bee, should he run, would be expected to raise considerably more money than Graf, but starting almost $1 million in arrears in the fund raising race is a daunting mountain to climb.

What's especially noteworthy about the numbers from last quarter is how far out from the election we are. Giffords' fund raising efforts haven't really kicked it into high gear yet - on suspects those quarterly tallies can still get significantly higher once the first of the year passes.

It's looking more-and-more like people have been caught flat-footed by just how early campaigning has begun, not just in Presidential campaigns but in Senatorial and Congressional ones as well. Campaigning for the AZ 8 seat in last year's election didn't get seriously underway until Dec. 2006 or Jan. 2007. Anyone who thought they could wait that late this year before getting things underway has now had a rude shock.

As an additional factor, for all her prowess raising money last year, Giffords spent a large chunk of it in a competitive primary race. That's very unlikely to be the case next year, meaning all that money being gathered in her war chest can be saved for the general.

Should Bee opt to run he likely has the stature to keep out any other high-profile Republicans. He needs to hope so anyway, as a primary brawl including some mix of Graf, Mike Hellon and Steve Huffman would only seriously hurt conservative hopes to retake the seat.

Recent studies seem to indicate that while money raised is certainly correlated with who wins a political race, it doesn't determine who will win. (Freakonomics has an entire chapter on the subject). The brief argument is people like to back winners, and tend to donate money to those they think will win. In other words, good candidates tend to get more money.

If so, there are apparently a lot of people already out there who think Giffords can (and will) win re-election in 2008. If Tim Bee (or, for that matter, anyone else) wants to take a good shot at here, they can't wait any longer ... a decision needs to be made now.