Blood in the water

According to a post at Roll Call, Rick Renzi has announced he will not run for re-election in 2008.

This isn't any kind of surprise, of course. Renzi won re-election last fall despite some ethics questions arising late in the race. Those questions, which involve a land-swap deal which benefited friend and contributor James Sandlin to the tune of $4.5 million, and associated investigations (including an FBI raid of the Renzi family's insurance business offices), have only magnified since then. Combined with the notable lack of fund-raising (just $20,000 banked as of July 1) for what would presumably be an even more contentious and expensive race next year, and the vultures have been circling for some time.

Democrats, sensing blood, have already been lofting hats into the ring, including Ann Kirkpatrick, Mary Kim Titla and Howard Shanker, with Steve Owens likely to join them. On the Republican side, Steve Pierce and Ken Bennett have previously expressed interest if Renzi opted not to run.

This will be a high priority race for both parties. Based on past history, an open seat should favor Republicans - after all, Renzi won by eight points last year despite the bad political environment and the ethical questions. While the 2008 political environment right now is shaping up to be even worse for Republicans than 2006 was, and any Republican candidate won't have the incumbancy edge Renzi enjoyed, presumably they won't have the same ethics cloud either.

Still, the district demographics have been moving in favor of Democrats in recent years, and liberals seem much more energetic and motivated for 2008 than conservatives. Out of the gates I think this seat will lean Republican, but if another "blue wave" occurs, this seat could get swept up as well.

With at three House races (CD1, CD5 and CD8) expected to be competitive, there will be a lot of money spent on political advertising in Arizona next year. With a possible battle royale looming in 2010 between Janet Napolitano and John McCain for McCain's Senate seat (plus the likelihood of tight contests for the same three House seats, regardless of who wins in 2008), Arizona is shaping up as a real battleground state.