For some reason there has been a lot of griping about Tim Bee not resigning his position to run in CD 8 ... griping I don't understand. If Bee feels he can run a credible, substantive race while also retaining his influential seat in the Arizona Senate, more power to him -- as blogger ThinkRight regularly notes, it may be a long, long time before a Baja Arizonan leads the Senate again.
As long as Bee files financial reports, I don't see how his remaining in the Senate can hurt anyone else in the race, most notably Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords. If anything, the extra demands on Bee's time can only help her.
Well, the reports are out. The Star has an article this morning discussing AZ 8 fund-raising figures for both Giffords and Bee, and x4mr already has a post up about the matter. The early scoreboard shows Giffords raising $250K last quarter, with $1.1 million tucker away, while Bee raised $135K, with $120K on hand.
A pair of posters have already (as I write this) thrown in their $.02, with ThinkRight opining Bee's early fund-raising figures are quit good for an exploratory campaign, while Roger feels the figure is disappointing for the Bee camp.
Count me firmly on Roger's side of the debate.
Calling Bee's campaign "exploratory" is sophistry at its finest. Everyone knows Bee will run, and any claims from his staff to the contrary are purely to allow Bee to retain his position as head of the state Senate for as long as possible. Being "exploratory" didn't hurt or help his fundraising in any way, shape, form or fashion.
Bee did suffer from some handicaps, in that his campaign was just getting underway as the quarter began. However, if memory serves the comittee was formed in June, meaning Bee had the entire quarter to raise money.
Furthermore, the first quarter of fundraising is the "easy" quarter. This is the money you get from all your friends, contacts, business associates, etc., the money you use to build the foundation of your campaign organization. From this point on, raising money only gets harder. For a comparison, in her first quarter of fundraising, a period in which she only had five weeks (having declared in late Nov. 2005), Giffords raised over $250K.
Another comparison - the $250K Giffords raised last month was, by far, her worst quarter of the year. You can expect to see that figure kick up again as 2008 turns the quarter. At this time last campaign Giffords was six weeks from even declaring ... she went on to raise $2.5 million for the race.
Bee and his campaign will never admit it ... but if I were a betting man I would lay a lot of money that yes, they are very disappointed with their initial fundraising efforts. If they hope to unseat Giffords, they are going to have to do better.
Correction: ThinkRight, in comments, notes the Bee exploratory committee did not officially kick off until late Aug. As such, fundraising efforts only cover the last five weeks of the quarter.
It doesn't change my opinion the amount raised remains disappointing, both for reasons noted above and in the comment thread, but it does attenuate it good bit.
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8 comments:
Sirocco,
There are a lot of people waiting on the sideline that have yet to donate to Bee. From what I have heard, should he fulfill a few more checkmarks, he will see a substantial surge in fund raising.
One of those checkmarks is, of course, actually filing as a candidate. More than a few are keeping their powder dry until this happens.
Expect him to at least get as much as Steve Huffman received at $671,598, you can probably add in Mike Hellon's $190,000 and a good portion of Graf's almost $500,000. And all of that was for the primary.
I suspect that Giffords will end up with more money than Bee, but Bee will certainly close the gap after officially announcing and putting the rest of his ducks in a row.
I really doubt than money will play the biggest factor in this race, both candidates will have sufficient for their needs.
All of this presupposes that Bee actually runs, of course.
Windy, (having fun with the Desert Wind)
Per CGPolitics.com, the avg fundraising for Frosh Republican Congressmen is $166k for the last Quarter (3 months). Tim Bee announced at the end of August & raised $135k in just over one month. Not shabby at all. Gabby raised $250k over the entire three month period. Tim is outperforming Gabby per month at this period in time.
Go Tim Go!
Well, this is interesting. I find myself agreeing with Framer and TR and not with Roger or Sirocco.
Until Bee announces, he is "pseudo" and yes, raises some funds, but not like one who has announced.
Time will clear all of this up. I concur with Framer that funds are mounting behind a door that opens when Bee announces, which is almost certain for January.
I consider the lack of resignation post January problematic. If I am shown wrong, add it to the long list.
TR,
Are you sure about the end of August? My recollection is his exploratory committee was formed as far back as June, meaning he would have been taking money in for nearly all the quarter.
Framer, x4mr,
I agree not having "officially" declared likely limits Bee's fund-raising, but I can't see it being a large drag on the finances. It's an open secret Bee _is_ going to run, and his postponing of the declaration is purely a strategic decision.
Ultimately, I agree he will have plenty of money on hand to get his message out, but I do think he and his campaign are disappointed with the initial intake ... or, if they aren't disappointed, that they should be.
August 21st I broke the story & if you check his filing, the money started coming in that week.
In just over a month, they've done well. AND they're just at the "Exploratory stage"
Sirocco,
Its not just the official declaration that puts the money in place. To get large amounts of national and PAC money (which he will need), Tim will need to demonstrate a good organization, and probably have some more big guns on his team. Of course much of this can be prepared during the exploratory phase, but cannot be finalized or announced until after he officially becomes a candidate.
Simply announcing will not be enough to "open the floodgates" but it is a necessary first step. Once this happens, much of the "big money" will look at his organization, what he has done on his own for fundraising thus far, and his campaign plan. Of course none of this can be demonstrated until after Tim is official.
So there isn't much "magical" about Tim officially announcing and fundraising other than it opens the door to the real markers. If his pieces are in place he will raise some serious money quickly. If all is not in order, then he could struggle even after announcing.
That's what I would expect. There's money out there, for sure. When the time is right, it will surge.
I agree with Framer that Tim does not need an amount equal to or greater than Giffords to run an effective campaign. If everyone were to vote for the person who raised the most money, we'd be in a lot of trouble. I'm getting really tired of hearing about all the fundraising. You'd think we were voting for fundraisers rather than representatives.
I don't look at the fundraising tallies purely in terms of what the candidates can spend on there messaging. As Framer has noted, and I agree, however much either candidate raises, each will have more than enough money to make their respective case to the voters.
What gives me interest in the money race is the "wisdom of the masses". I tend to see it as a form of placing bets on a candidate - people tend to (not always, of course, but generally) donate money to candidates they see as winners. So to me, the money race is more a perspective on how the respective candidates are viewed.
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