A bad day in Baghdad

A series of five explosions rocked Baghdad yesterday, killing at least 171 people and wounding hundreds more. The worst was an explosion at a bus hub, which by itself killed 140+ and wounded 150 or more. The bombings have continued today, with an explosion killing 10 more. The day is still young.

Yesterday's violence was the worst in the Iraqi capital since the administration, disdaining the will of the people who elected him, launched his escalation there. Not surprisingly, despite the news being overshadowed by the Virginia Tech nightmare, the Supreme Court abortion ruling and the Gonzales testimony, some commentators are taking the opportunity to use it as a sign the escalation is already a failure. Thoughtful blogger x4mr makes a small allusion to this in a post he made last night.

I responded to x4mr's post, but wanted to expand on my thoughts here. I am opposed to the escalation and want us out of Iraq. However, just as I am frustrated when global warming sceptics try to use a single data point to dispute the seriousness (or even existence) of the problem (as in "hey, we just had a record storm in the Northeast - when does global warming kick in again?? "), using a single data point to claim the escalation is not working is the same logical fallacy.

So ... let's look for more data points.

McClatchy provides some good information regarding US casualties in Iraq here, including an Excel spreadsheet with month-by-month tallies of US deaths, with a breakout for those in Baghdad. While the article accurately notes the last six months have been the deadliest six-month period for US troops since the war began, those figures are skewed by high figures in Oct. and Dec. of 2006, two of the five deadliest months of the war for US forces, and both occurring prior to the start of the "surge". Casualties in Feb. and Mar. of 2007 are much closer to the established baseline (which has, admittedly, trended up since the start of the war).

However, the first half of April (McClatchy's figures were posted Apr. 16) has been quite bad, and if the rate continues April will rank among the worst of the war for US casualties. Of course, the key words are "if the rate continues". It's also possible the recent convulsions will be followed by a lull, and the US casualty total for the month will be at or near the baseline.

(As an aside, US casualties within Baghdad have certainly trended up since the escalation, but that's to be expected with the extra combat missions occurring there.)

Looking at civilian casualty figures, the AP reported on April 13 that in the two months since the surge began civilian casualties in Baghdad has dropped to 1,586, down from 2,871 in the two months prior to the escalation. This was somewhat offset by an increase in civilian deaths outside the capital, rising from 1,009 in the two months prior to the surge to 1,504 in the two months since.

(I considered making some tallies of my own using the data available here, but that much time and energy I simply don't have. I wish the provided the DB or Spreadsheet containing the data so I could run some queries against it.)

Sooo ... what are my conclusions? Heck if I know. US casualties may jump some, but that's not yet clear. Iraqi civilian casualties do seem to be down. In general, though, despite some recent high-profile events (Wednesday's bombings, the bombing within the Green Zone), the overall figures don't yet show enough to make decisive statements for or against the efficacy of the surge.