Thursday, June 21, 2007

That didn't take long.

A few days ago I threw up a post discussing the events in Gaza, and my thoughts on the upcoming dissolution of one Palestinian state into two. In it, I predicted the West Bank would likely be receiving visits from suicide bombers inside of 12 months.

It appears I was optimistic.

In a NY Times article today, Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar was asked about his intents regarding the West Bank, and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas' attempts to stamp out Hamas influence there after Hamas ran Fatah out of Gaza last weekend.

“If they continue to dismantle the local elections in the West Bank and punish Hamas there, the United States and Israel will face another surprise there,” Mr. Zahar said. Asked how, he said, “The way we defend ourselves against Israel and this occupation.” Pressed if that meant attacks and suicide bombings, he smiled and replied: “You said that.” Then he added: “We are ending the reign of the spies and collaborators in Fatah.”

Already, within a week, Zahar is intimating Hamas will resort to suicide bomb attacks not against Israeli's, but against fellow Palestinians. At this rate, we will see them occurring within 12 weeks, not 12 months.

Zahar has some points -- Hamas was chosen by the people of Palestine to represent the country. Abbas is tracking down and arresting elected Hamas officials and destroying Hamas facilities in the West Bank. Of course, there is one big pont Zahar fails to mention: this all has occurred after Hamas initiated open conflict in Gaza and killed a number of Fatah supporters, including throwing at least one out of a high window. If one starts an armed conflict, one can't be surprised when one's opponents respond in kind.

The behavior and rhetoric just emphasizes once again the nihilistic attitude so prevalent among so many factions in the region. If a group can't get everything it wants, it will make sure nobody gets anything they want. So the spiral continues, each act of violence and death begetting more instances of violence and death. Parties saying they will negotiate, meaning they are willing to accept what they want as long as they give nothing up in return. Iraq is the same way.

Four years ago, we went into Iraq amidst dreams of establishing some form of flourishing Arab democracy there (among other things, I know). I haven't checked on it lately, how is that going? Afghanistan may be marginally better, but no one can say it's going well.

Two years ago, when Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip it was described as an "opportunity" to help jump-start negotiations toward a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian problems, maybe help create a separate, democratic Palestinian state. Events last weekend might have put just a small damper in that plan.

Now, the situation in the West Bank is being declared an "opportunity" to help show how a separate, peaceful solution and a democratic Palestinian state might be created. Given our track record on helping establish democratic Arabic states in the region, I'm not holding my breath.

If you have read this far and are waiting for me to propose a solution, I am sorry to disappoint you -- I don't have one. I can't see one. Maybe complaining and bemoaning without offering any ideas makes me an intellectual nihilist, on this matter at least. I don't think so, though -- I still have hope a solution exists. Maybe if we stumble around long enough, we'll eventually trip on it.

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