I often hear the assertion Israel's West Bank settlements are illegal, and I expected to be able to find a clear statute, treaty or some such which the existence of the settlements unquestionably contravenes. However, after several days of research, and with the full understanding I am not a lawyer (nor do I play one on TV), while I still feel the weight of the arguments supports the claim the settlements are illegal, I am forced to concede there is more murkiness surrounding the issues than I expected.
What isn't murky is there will be no lasting peace in the region until those settlements are removed, and Israel's prospects for future security necessitate removing them.
For decades now most parties have agreed a "two-state" approach is the only one which can be successful, and for a separate Palestinian state to be feasible Israel would have to cede control of the West Bank to a new, independent, Palestinian nation. Despite this general acknowledgment, however, the number of Israeli settlers in West Bank territories has continued to grow, from 110,000 in the early 1990's to nearly 300,000 today ... without counting East Jerusalem (which I see as a separate issue).
Not surprisingly, Palestinians view this continuing influx of settlers as tantamount to explicit sabotage of any peace negotiations. The logic is not hard to follow - if all parties agree peace requires a separate Palestinian state, and that state will be founded in the West Bank, yet Israel continues to actively claim more land in the West Bank, Israel must not seriously desire peace.
A number of Israelis have suggested any serious effort to forcibly remove the settlements might well lead to an Israeli civil war, which is not a pleasant prospect. It is, however, a threat which Israel has to stop tap-dancing around and confront the issue. Making a clear, large, concerted effort to remove the settlements would do more to promote peace and security in the region than any number of bombs dropped in Lebanon or Gaza.
The vast majority of Israeli settlers are themselves religious extremists, who hold the entire country hostage to their demands that Arabs be evicted from the "Promised land". Moderate Israeli's, by-and-large, seem fed up and exasperated with them, yet little is done to rein them in. Until Israel gets serious about dealing with its own extremists, why should they expect Palestinians to be serious about dealing with theirs?
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
New Math
There has, of course, been a great deal of dialog about the Israeli assault on Gaza, a great deal of valid concern over the Palestinian civilian casualties while Israel persists in emphasizing the uninhibited rocketing of it's civilians over a number of months, and its intent to continue the assault until that capability is ended or, at least, severely diminished.
In particular, x4mr has posts here, here, here and here where he and people I generally find myself in agreement with emphasize the cruelty of the shelling and the civilian deaths ... and they are, of course, entirely correct - those deaths are cruel, regrettable, should have been preventable ... and they are, of course, correct that Israel has done much to encourage Hamas to fire rockets into Israel, including blockading food and medical supplies, doing nothing to about illegal settlements on Palestinian land, and so on. The list is long.
I still find myself disagreeing with them.
Ultimately, the calculus they apply seems to lay the responsibility of every civilian casualty, every death in Gaza, directly at the feet of Israel. This math, however, seems insupportable to me. While people might disagree as to how much effort Israel is putting into limiting civilian casualties in Gaza, I don't think anyone disputes they are, at least, making some effort. On the other side, though, the Hamas strategy seems predicated on willfully and intentionally creating the maximum possible number of civilian deaths.
I.e., Hamas is willfully sacrificing as many of their own population as they possibly can in order to place their blood on the altar of world opinion, a point which should have been made clear to all when Hamas joined Israel in rejecting Egyptian calls for a truce. Israel wants no truce until Hamas is broken, or at least more damaged than it is so far. Hamas wants no truce until they have managed to get more Palestinian civilians killed ... the more, the better.
Now, in terms of a military approach this is the best strategy they have available to them - certainly, Hamas can't hope to win a straight up fight against Israel. However, given they are the ones making the strategic decision to do so, why is Hamas not being held at least equally complicit in their deaths, if not more so, than Israel?
Ultimately, of course, Hamas' rockets into Israel were meant to provoke exactly the response it has. If Israel wants permanent peace, they will have to find some way to break the cycle of violence and show they are serious about helping Palestinians create a homeland. A good start would be, once they are done with their assualt on Gaza, to put a similar amount of effort into removing the illegal settlements in the West Bank, by force if necessary - then dare Hamas, Hezbollah and other such groups to go to the general Palestinian process and ask them if they are willing to continue the struggle, or if somehow a homelnd centered on the West Bank can be enough.
In particular, x4mr has posts here, here, here and here where he and people I generally find myself in agreement with emphasize the cruelty of the shelling and the civilian deaths ... and they are, of course, entirely correct - those deaths are cruel, regrettable, should have been preventable ... and they are, of course, correct that Israel has done much to encourage Hamas to fire rockets into Israel, including blockading food and medical supplies, doing nothing to about illegal settlements on Palestinian land, and so on. The list is long.
I still find myself disagreeing with them.
Ultimately, the calculus they apply seems to lay the responsibility of every civilian casualty, every death in Gaza, directly at the feet of Israel. This math, however, seems insupportable to me. While people might disagree as to how much effort Israel is putting into limiting civilian casualties in Gaza, I don't think anyone disputes they are, at least, making some effort. On the other side, though, the Hamas strategy seems predicated on willfully and intentionally creating the maximum possible number of civilian deaths.
I.e., Hamas is willfully sacrificing as many of their own population as they possibly can in order to place their blood on the altar of world opinion, a point which should have been made clear to all when Hamas joined Israel in rejecting Egyptian calls for a truce. Israel wants no truce until Hamas is broken, or at least more damaged than it is so far. Hamas wants no truce until they have managed to get more Palestinian civilians killed ... the more, the better.
Now, in terms of a military approach this is the best strategy they have available to them - certainly, Hamas can't hope to win a straight up fight against Israel. However, given they are the ones making the strategic decision to do so, why is Hamas not being held at least equally complicit in their deaths, if not more so, than Israel?
Ultimately, of course, Hamas' rockets into Israel were meant to provoke exactly the response it has. If Israel wants permanent peace, they will have to find some way to break the cycle of violence and show they are serious about helping Palestinians create a homeland. A good start would be, once they are done with their assualt on Gaza, to put a similar amount of effort into removing the illegal settlements in the West Bank, by force if necessary - then dare Hamas, Hezbollah and other such groups to go to the general Palestinian process and ask them if they are willing to continue the struggle, or if somehow a homelnd centered on the West Bank can be enough.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Al-Qaeda's favored candidate
John McCain has recently taken to referring to Barack Obama as Hamas' favorite candidate, apparently because Obama has advocating dialog with Hamas leadership to try to further finding a solution to the Israel-Palestine problem. Our glorious President joined in yesterday, equating Obama to Neville Chamberlain attempting to appease Hitler.
Hamas is certainly an unsavory organization, but like it or not it also has a political aspect, and is the party duly and freely elected to head the Palestinian government ... and currently does so in the Gaza Strip. As such, it behooves us to engage them - no peace is likely to be found in the region if we refuse to do so. Even McCain himself recognizes this ... or, at least, he did two years ago:
"They're the government; sooner or later we are going to have to deal with them, one way or another, and I understand why this administration and previous administrations had such antipathy towards Hamas because of their dedication to violence and the things that they not only espouse but practice, so . . . but it's a new reality in the Middle East. I think the lesson is people want security and a decent life and decent future, that they want democracy. Fatah was not giving them that."
That's some pretty bent-talking there, slamming someone for holding the exact same view you have previously expressed ... of course, that was before McCain become the Republican candidate for President and had to sacrifice his actual beliefs to the party extremists.
McCain was right the first time ... only a moron (and our President certainly qualifies on this count) would speak in absolutes about such matters, and fail to recognize the infinite shades of gray in between. Not surprisingly, Eggplant has drawn the wrong lesson from Chamberlain's errors. The mistake was NOT in opening discussion with Hitler's government, but rather in agreeing to Germany's forceful annexation of Austria and Czechoslovakia in exchange for "Peace for our time" ... a time which lasted less than 12 months.
Talking to someone or some organization is NOT the same as "giving them everything they want".
Meanwhile numerous studies and stories (here, here and here for just a few examples) have noted how the US presence in Iraq has helped al-Qaeda garner new recruits (although this appears more difficult now in past years). Bent-talk express himself has voiced his support for being in Iraq 100 years if necessary ... which certainly seems like it would make him al-Qaeda's favored candidate.
Hamas is certainly an unsavory organization, but like it or not it also has a political aspect, and is the party duly and freely elected to head the Palestinian government ... and currently does so in the Gaza Strip. As such, it behooves us to engage them - no peace is likely to be found in the region if we refuse to do so. Even McCain himself recognizes this ... or, at least, he did two years ago:
"They're the government; sooner or later we are going to have to deal with them, one way or another, and I understand why this administration and previous administrations had such antipathy towards Hamas because of their dedication to violence and the things that they not only espouse but practice, so . . . but it's a new reality in the Middle East. I think the lesson is people want security and a decent life and decent future, that they want democracy. Fatah was not giving them that."
That's some pretty bent-talking there, slamming someone for holding the exact same view you have previously expressed ... of course, that was before McCain become the Republican candidate for President and had to sacrifice his actual beliefs to the party extremists.
McCain was right the first time ... only a moron (and our President certainly qualifies on this count) would speak in absolutes about such matters, and fail to recognize the infinite shades of gray in between. Not surprisingly, Eggplant has drawn the wrong lesson from Chamberlain's errors. The mistake was NOT in opening discussion with Hitler's government, but rather in agreeing to Germany's forceful annexation of Austria and Czechoslovakia in exchange for "Peace for our time" ... a time which lasted less than 12 months.
Talking to someone or some organization is NOT the same as "giving them everything they want".
Meanwhile numerous studies and stories (here, here and here for just a few examples) have noted how the US presence in Iraq has helped al-Qaeda garner new recruits (although this appears more difficult now in past years). Bent-talk express himself has voiced his support for being in Iraq 100 years if necessary ... which certainly seems like it would make him al-Qaeda's favored candidate.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Gaza siege
The NY Times this morning has a short article and associated multimedia presentation about the effects of the current lock down on regular Palestinians within Gaza, something I talked about a little bit last week.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Long talk with an old friend (part II)
Part I is available here. As with Part I, any comments in quotation marks are my best recollection, and portray what was said with good accuracy, but should not be taken as verbatim quotes.
* * *
As part of the same rambling conversation, my friend mentioned the electricity situation in Gaza. For those who are unaware, an Israeli air strike in the summer of 2006 knocked out the only power plant within the Gaza strip. Since then, Gaza has been largely reliant on fuel for generators and Israeli sources for its electricity.
However, fuel supplies are running dry, and the Israeli government recently indicated it planned to stop sending electricity to Gaza, although those plans were at least temporarily placed on hold last week by a ruling from Israel's Supreme Court.
"It's not as simple as not having lights or air conditioners," my friend said. "It's all the things you never think of, you take for granted. People in hospitals will die. Medicine which needs refrigeration will spoil. Almost all of the water in Gaza comes from the ocean. Without electricity, the desalination plant can't run, there will be no water."
She also discussed her frustrations with the situation.
She felt she had been in her position long enough she was no longer effective in it - that as she became acclimated to the day-to-day problems thrown in her way they no longer outraged her, and without that outrage her effectiveness decreased.
She gave an example of a colleague of hers arriving recently in Jerusalem, and on arrival being asked why he was there. As soon as he mentioned he hoped to work to further peace between Israelis and Palestinians he was sent back to the US and told he was not welcome to return for a 10-year period.
"When I first began, I'd have been furious," she said. "This time, I just divied up the extra work among everyone and we all continued on."
She talked about the difficulties of making treks to Gaza. Israel doesn't allow people to cross into Gaza unless they have some powerful reason for doing so, such as overseeing what money a group has sent to Gaza is being spent on. To go on a certain day she has to apply long in advance to be placed on a list. On the specified day she has to arrive at the checkpoint and go through a two-hour process to get clearance to pass through, and a similar process coming back. Any approval is only for a single day, so just getting through the border takes up a big chunk of your allotted time.
She discussed how blase she had become about having guns pointed at her. I've had guns pointed at me a handful of times in my life, and can vividly recall each of them. She clearly has lost count.
"I think I can do one more year, then it will be time to move on to another lost cause," she told me. "Maybe immigration issues here."
I'm of two minds about this. In the abstract, my friend is exactly the person I would want in Jerusalem working on such matters. She is bright, caring, driven, tactful, trustworthy, dedicated ... name a trait you would want in an individual working on the ground to promote peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and she has it in spades. I can't think of anyone else I would prefer in that position ... in the abstract.
In reality, she's my friend, and I'll be glad when she and her family are back in the states, and she (hopefully) no longer has guns pointed at her on a regular basis.
* * *
In part I my friend mentioned her belief that, if elections were held again Palestinians would never vote for Hamas, but Hamas will never allow more elections because they also know they would lose. Certainly, events like this just support that view.
* * *
As part of the same rambling conversation, my friend mentioned the electricity situation in Gaza. For those who are unaware, an Israeli air strike in the summer of 2006 knocked out the only power plant within the Gaza strip. Since then, Gaza has been largely reliant on fuel for generators and Israeli sources for its electricity.
However, fuel supplies are running dry, and the Israeli government recently indicated it planned to stop sending electricity to Gaza, although those plans were at least temporarily placed on hold last week by a ruling from Israel's Supreme Court.
"It's not as simple as not having lights or air conditioners," my friend said. "It's all the things you never think of, you take for granted. People in hospitals will die. Medicine which needs refrigeration will spoil. Almost all of the water in Gaza comes from the ocean. Without electricity, the desalination plant can't run, there will be no water."
She also discussed her frustrations with the situation.
She felt she had been in her position long enough she was no longer effective in it - that as she became acclimated to the day-to-day problems thrown in her way they no longer outraged her, and without that outrage her effectiveness decreased.
She gave an example of a colleague of hers arriving recently in Jerusalem, and on arrival being asked why he was there. As soon as he mentioned he hoped to work to further peace between Israelis and Palestinians he was sent back to the US and told he was not welcome to return for a 10-year period.
"When I first began, I'd have been furious," she said. "This time, I just divied up the extra work among everyone and we all continued on."
She talked about the difficulties of making treks to Gaza. Israel doesn't allow people to cross into Gaza unless they have some powerful reason for doing so, such as overseeing what money a group has sent to Gaza is being spent on. To go on a certain day she has to apply long in advance to be placed on a list. On the specified day she has to arrive at the checkpoint and go through a two-hour process to get clearance to pass through, and a similar process coming back. Any approval is only for a single day, so just getting through the border takes up a big chunk of your allotted time.
She discussed how blase she had become about having guns pointed at her. I've had guns pointed at me a handful of times in my life, and can vividly recall each of them. She clearly has lost count.
"I think I can do one more year, then it will be time to move on to another lost cause," she told me. "Maybe immigration issues here."
I'm of two minds about this. In the abstract, my friend is exactly the person I would want in Jerusalem working on such matters. She is bright, caring, driven, tactful, trustworthy, dedicated ... name a trait you would want in an individual working on the ground to promote peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and she has it in spades. I can't think of anyone else I would prefer in that position ... in the abstract.
In reality, she's my friend, and I'll be glad when she and her family are back in the states, and she (hopefully) no longer has guns pointed at her on a regular basis.
* * *
In part I my friend mentioned her belief that, if elections were held again Palestinians would never vote for Hamas, but Hamas will never allow more elections because they also know they would lose. Certainly, events like this just support that view.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Long talk with an old friend (part I)
Over this past weekend I had the opportunity to catch up with someone I've known nearly 30 years. For whatever reason, the last couple years whenever we ran into each other one or both of us were hurrying off to somewhere, so this was an opportunity not to be missed.
She is married to an Israeli citizen, lives in Israel, and has spent a number of years working for a Palestinian-affiliated group hoping to promote the peace process, so I was very interested in her take on the current state of affairs. Not surprisingly, she wasn't optimistic.
We discussed the elections which brought Hamas to power, and she had a different take on matters. I am presenting her comments as quotes, but they should be taken as reasonably accurate recollections of what she said, rather than a verbatim word-for-word recounting.
"(Tip O'Neill) said 'all politics are local', and that's what the election was. People, especially in their first election, don't consider foreign relations in casting their votes, they worry about who will do best filling the potholes in the roads outside their homes."
"They knew Fatah was corrupt, they knew what Fatah was, they knew Fatah left the potholes. They'd had years of Fatah. They hoped Hamas might do more to make things better locally. They didn't think of the election, their first election ever, as a referendum, on their foreign policy views."
"Now, if there were a vote again, and Hamas won again, then I think the international community would have a legitimate concern ... but if an election were held again, Hamas would never win. Which is why Hamas won't allow more elections."
I have to confess, I hadn't considered the notion the Palestinians wouldn't realize the international significance of their choice when casting their votes ... and I still think, on some level, most of them were aware of it. The stated goals of Hamas are not exactly secret. Still, faced with two bad choices between:
* A corrupt group with some international legitimacy, or
* A (possibly) less corrupt group which has made serious efforts to help local citizens, but which had little (if any) international legitimacy,
it's not so unreasonable they might have opted for the devil they didn't know and hoped for the best.
She is married to an Israeli citizen, lives in Israel, and has spent a number of years working for a Palestinian-affiliated group hoping to promote the peace process, so I was very interested in her take on the current state of affairs. Not surprisingly, she wasn't optimistic.
We discussed the elections which brought Hamas to power, and she had a different take on matters. I am presenting her comments as quotes, but they should be taken as reasonably accurate recollections of what she said, rather than a verbatim word-for-word recounting.
"(Tip O'Neill) said 'all politics are local', and that's what the election was. People, especially in their first election, don't consider foreign relations in casting their votes, they worry about who will do best filling the potholes in the roads outside their homes."
"They knew Fatah was corrupt, they knew what Fatah was, they knew Fatah left the potholes. They'd had years of Fatah. They hoped Hamas might do more to make things better locally. They didn't think of the election, their first election ever, as a referendum, on their foreign policy views."
"Now, if there were a vote again, and Hamas won again, then I think the international community would have a legitimate concern ... but if an election were held again, Hamas would never win. Which is why Hamas won't allow more elections."
I have to confess, I hadn't considered the notion the Palestinians wouldn't realize the international significance of their choice when casting their votes ... and I still think, on some level, most of them were aware of it. The stated goals of Hamas are not exactly secret. Still, faced with two bad choices between:
* A corrupt group with some international legitimacy, or
* A (possibly) less corrupt group which has made serious efforts to help local citizens, but which had little (if any) international legitimacy,
it's not so unreasonable they might have opted for the devil they didn't know and hoped for the best.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Same song, second verse
McClatchey newspapers reported last week that the neo-con wing of the administration, led by Darth Cheney himself, are ardently agitating for an airstrike against alleged terrorist training camps inside Iran.
Just what we need - open hostilities with another Islamic nation. What, two isn't enough? For all the shouts of "jihadists" coming from some quarters, it almost seems like some elements of our government are determined on creating a crusade of their own.
This all ties in with the recent chorus of claims that Iran is providing material support to Iraqi insurgents. Of course, this creates an odd catch-22 for the administration - all this supposed aid from Iran is directed to Shiite factions, and attacks from Shiite organizations are on the uprise. Shiite factions are most assuredly not associated with al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, the administration has been busily trying to conflate all insurgent attacks in Iraq with al-Qaeda in Iraq, which itself is supposedly "the same people from 9/11". Except for the fact al-Qaeda in Iraq never existed prior to 9/11.
But what's a few blatant logical inconsistencies between friends ...
What makes this article especially worrisome to me are two items:
1. Warren Strobel, one of the authors of the McClatchy piece, was one of the few journalists who consistently got things right in the run up to the Iraq war, challenging administration claims about WMDs in Iraq, alleged nuclear programs, etc. On every matter, Strobel (and his co-author on many of those pieces, Jonathan Landy, was eventually shown to be right.
There is nothing new about neo-cons such as Cheney, Norman Podhoretz and others of their ilk pushing for new and better wars. However, the fact Strobel put his name to this recent article just makes it all the more credible that, even though Cheney hasn't had his way on the issue yet, he may in the near future.
2. The military is pushing the whole "these devices must have come from Iran" angle, despite having found a factory in Iraq making them as far back as last February. This is exactly the type of misinformation and propaganda used to stampede us into invading Iraq in the first place.
When in trouble, people revert back to what they know ... and apparently what certain significant portions of this administration know is "nuke em til they glow".
I can't believe I am saying this, but I am desperately hoping Condi prevails in this matter. Even as our troops continue to die in Iraq while the Iraqi government teeters on the edge of collapse, Cheney continues doing his damnedest to prove yet again he can always make things worse.
Just what we need - open hostilities with another Islamic nation. What, two isn't enough? For all the shouts of "jihadists" coming from some quarters, it almost seems like some elements of our government are determined on creating a crusade of their own.
This all ties in with the recent chorus of claims that Iran is providing material support to Iraqi insurgents. Of course, this creates an odd catch-22 for the administration - all this supposed aid from Iran is directed to Shiite factions, and attacks from Shiite organizations are on the uprise. Shiite factions are most assuredly not associated with al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, the administration has been busily trying to conflate all insurgent attacks in Iraq with al-Qaeda in Iraq, which itself is supposedly "the same people from 9/11". Except for the fact al-Qaeda in Iraq never existed prior to 9/11.
But what's a few blatant logical inconsistencies between friends ...
What makes this article especially worrisome to me are two items:
1. Warren Strobel, one of the authors of the McClatchy piece, was one of the few journalists who consistently got things right in the run up to the Iraq war, challenging administration claims about WMDs in Iraq, alleged nuclear programs, etc. On every matter, Strobel (and his co-author on many of those pieces, Jonathan Landy, was eventually shown to be right.
There is nothing new about neo-cons such as Cheney, Norman Podhoretz and others of their ilk pushing for new and better wars. However, the fact Strobel put his name to this recent article just makes it all the more credible that, even though Cheney hasn't had his way on the issue yet, he may in the near future.
2. The military is pushing the whole "these devices must have come from Iran" angle, despite having found a factory in Iraq making them as far back as last February. This is exactly the type of misinformation and propaganda used to stampede us into invading Iraq in the first place.
When in trouble, people revert back to what they know ... and apparently what certain significant portions of this administration know is "nuke em til they glow".
I can't believe I am saying this, but I am desperately hoping Condi prevails in this matter. Even as our troops continue to die in Iraq while the Iraqi government teeters on the edge of collapse, Cheney continues doing his damnedest to prove yet again he can always make things worse.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Gaza Blockade
The NY Times had an article this morning describing the effects the blockade of Gaza is having on people there. United Nations building projects have been halted, factories are closing since they can no longer get needed materials, and so on. Unfortunately, as always seems the case, it will be the majority of civilians just doing their best to lead normal lives who will likely suffer most.
While I appreciate the difficulty of their lives, I find it hard to sympathize.
About 18 months ago the citizens of Palestine were given an opportunity to vote, a privilege they exercised. In doing so, they elected Hamas to power. Now, that election may have said a lot more about the disgust the citizenry had with the corruption rampant within the other main party, Fatah, than it did about their degree of alignment with Hamas ... but whatever the motivation, Hamas won.
All well and good -- elections held, and the will of the people was implemented. However, since among the founding tenets of Hamas is the commitment to the destruction of Israel, one can understand why Israel might be a bit concerned about the result. Since the election, Hamas has held to it's tenets and refused to recognize Israel's right to exist, and last month implemented a military coup in the Strip, driving off or killing Fatah supporters. Israel responded by closing access to Gaza, leading to the current state of affairs where the economy of the area is turning from disastrous to non-existent.
The article mentioned the seeming lack of concern within Israel (and in the West Bank for that mater) over the situation, and the apparent lack of haste in re-opening commercial access to the Strip. However, given Hamas' intransigence it can't be a surprise Israel might not be in a real hurry to provide aid and assistance to an organization committed to Israeli destruction.
What the people of the Gaza Strip are learning is that, while elections are great to have, they don't occur in a vacuum. Elections have consequences. The citizens living in the Strip are learning about some of those consequences, and they are likely to continue living with them until either Hamas officially recognizes Israel or the people themselves institute a change in their government.
I may be too harsh on Palestinians for not understanding the consequences of their vote. After all, they were new to Democracy. We've had centuries of experience, but apparently couldn't figure out the same lesson in 2004.
While I appreciate the difficulty of their lives, I find it hard to sympathize.
About 18 months ago the citizens of Palestine were given an opportunity to vote, a privilege they exercised. In doing so, they elected Hamas to power. Now, that election may have said a lot more about the disgust the citizenry had with the corruption rampant within the other main party, Fatah, than it did about their degree of alignment with Hamas ... but whatever the motivation, Hamas won.
All well and good -- elections held, and the will of the people was implemented. However, since among the founding tenets of Hamas is the commitment to the destruction of Israel, one can understand why Israel might be a bit concerned about the result. Since the election, Hamas has held to it's tenets and refused to recognize Israel's right to exist, and last month implemented a military coup in the Strip, driving off or killing Fatah supporters. Israel responded by closing access to Gaza, leading to the current state of affairs where the economy of the area is turning from disastrous to non-existent.
The article mentioned the seeming lack of concern within Israel (and in the West Bank for that mater) over the situation, and the apparent lack of haste in re-opening commercial access to the Strip. However, given Hamas' intransigence it can't be a surprise Israel might not be in a real hurry to provide aid and assistance to an organization committed to Israeli destruction.
What the people of the Gaza Strip are learning is that, while elections are great to have, they don't occur in a vacuum. Elections have consequences. The citizens living in the Strip are learning about some of those consequences, and they are likely to continue living with them until either Hamas officially recognizes Israel or the people themselves institute a change in their government.
I may be too harsh on Palestinians for not understanding the consequences of their vote. After all, they were new to Democracy. We've had centuries of experience, but apparently couldn't figure out the same lesson in 2004.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
That didn't take long.
A few days ago I threw up a post discussing the events in Gaza, and my thoughts on the upcoming dissolution of one Palestinian state into two. In it, I predicted the West Bank would likely be receiving visits from suicide bombers inside of 12 months.
It appears I was optimistic.
In a NY Times article today, Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar was asked about his intents regarding the West Bank, and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas' attempts to stamp out Hamas influence there after Hamas ran Fatah out of Gaza last weekend.
Already, within a week, Zahar is intimating Hamas will resort to suicide bomb attacks not against Israeli's, but against fellow Palestinians. At this rate, we will see them occurring within 12 weeks, not 12 months.
Zahar has some points -- Hamas was chosen by the people of Palestine to represent the country. Abbas is tracking down and arresting elected Hamas officials and destroying Hamas facilities in the West Bank. Of course, there is one big pont Zahar fails to mention: this all has occurred after Hamas initiated open conflict in Gaza and killed a number of Fatah supporters, including throwing at least one out of a high window. If one starts an armed conflict, one can't be surprised when one's opponents respond in kind.
The behavior and rhetoric just emphasizes once again the nihilistic attitude so prevalent among so many factions in the region. If a group can't get everything it wants, it will make sure nobody gets anything they want. So the spiral continues, each act of violence and death begetting more instances of violence and death. Parties saying they will negotiate, meaning they are willing to accept what they want as long as they give nothing up in return. Iraq is the same way.
Four years ago, we went into Iraq amidst dreams of establishing some form of flourishing Arab democracy there (among other things, I know). I haven't checked on it lately, how is that going? Afghanistan may be marginally better, but no one can say it's going well.
Two years ago, when Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip it was described as an "opportunity" to help jump-start negotiations toward a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian problems, maybe help create a separate, democratic Palestinian state. Events last weekend might have put just a small damper in that plan.
Now, the situation in the West Bank is being declared an "opportunity" to help show how a separate, peaceful solution and a democratic Palestinian state might be created. Given our track record on helping establish democratic Arabic states in the region, I'm not holding my breath.
If you have read this far and are waiting for me to propose a solution, I am sorry to disappoint you -- I don't have one. I can't see one. Maybe complaining and bemoaning without offering any ideas makes me an intellectual nihilist, on this matter at least. I don't think so, though -- I still have hope a solution exists. Maybe if we stumble around long enough, we'll eventually trip on it.
It appears I was optimistic.
In a NY Times article today, Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar was asked about his intents regarding the West Bank, and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas' attempts to stamp out Hamas influence there after Hamas ran Fatah out of Gaza last weekend.
“If they continue to dismantle the local elections in the West Bank and punish Hamas there, the United States and Israel will face another surprise there,” Mr. Zahar said. Asked how, he said, “The way we defend ourselves against Israel and this occupation.” Pressed if that meant attacks and suicide bombings, he smiled and replied: “You said that.” Then he added: “We are ending the reign of the spies and collaborators in Fatah.”
Already, within a week, Zahar is intimating Hamas will resort to suicide bomb attacks not against Israeli's, but against fellow Palestinians. At this rate, we will see them occurring within 12 weeks, not 12 months.
Zahar has some points -- Hamas was chosen by the people of Palestine to represent the country. Abbas is tracking down and arresting elected Hamas officials and destroying Hamas facilities in the West Bank. Of course, there is one big pont Zahar fails to mention: this all has occurred after Hamas initiated open conflict in Gaza and killed a number of Fatah supporters, including throwing at least one out of a high window. If one starts an armed conflict, one can't be surprised when one's opponents respond in kind.
The behavior and rhetoric just emphasizes once again the nihilistic attitude so prevalent among so many factions in the region. If a group can't get everything it wants, it will make sure nobody gets anything they want. So the spiral continues, each act of violence and death begetting more instances of violence and death. Parties saying they will negotiate, meaning they are willing to accept what they want as long as they give nothing up in return. Iraq is the same way.
Four years ago, we went into Iraq amidst dreams of establishing some form of flourishing Arab democracy there (among other things, I know). I haven't checked on it lately, how is that going? Afghanistan may be marginally better, but no one can say it's going well.
Two years ago, when Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip it was described as an "opportunity" to help jump-start negotiations toward a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian problems, maybe help create a separate, democratic Palestinian state. Events last weekend might have put just a small damper in that plan.
Now, the situation in the West Bank is being declared an "opportunity" to help show how a separate, peaceful solution and a democratic Palestinian state might be created. Given our track record on helping establish democratic Arabic states in the region, I'm not holding my breath.
If you have read this far and are waiting for me to propose a solution, I am sorry to disappoint you -- I don't have one. I can't see one. Maybe complaining and bemoaning without offering any ideas makes me an intellectual nihilist, on this matter at least. I don't think so, though -- I still have hope a solution exists. Maybe if we stumble around long enough, we'll eventually trip on it.
Monday, June 18, 2007
A tale of two countries
With Hamas essentially executing a military takeover of the Gaza Strip, and President Mahmoud Abbas responding by dissolving the government and creating a new one in the West Bank, we now effectively have two semi-autonomous Palestines - one which the US and Israel (and other bodies, such as the European Union) have announced they will work with, once which they ... well, they aren't quite sure what to do with.
Ever since Hamas gained a large majority in the national elections about 18 months ago, both the US and Israel have been pointing out that while, yes, free elections are great and all, they also have consequences. In this case, the consequences have included withholding money and goods needed by Palestinians, particularly in the strip, where 1.5 million people are crowded into 139 square miles. By comparison, Tucson has about 1/3 the population in more than 1-1/2 times the space.
Hamas has attempted to blame the deteriorating conditions, especially in the Strip, on US and Israeli influences, particularly the refusal to turn over funds earmarked for Palestine, and needed to support the government. While the lack of funds has certainly been among the main contributors to the problem, it's hard to argue with the US/Israel stance in this matter, given Hamas' expressed intent to destroy Israel and replace it with a Palestinian state. Given Hamas has offered a 10-year truce but has never backed off this founding principle of the organization, has never given any recognition of Israel's right to exist, it seems ridiculous to then be surprised at Israel's reaction. "Yes, we plan to destroy you. In the meantime, would you mind forking over some money for a few years so we can stabilize and improve our national infrastructure, the better to carry out our aims in a decade or so?"
So, barring intensive Israeli military intervention in Gaza with the intent to crush Hamas and weaken it for some time to come, we are going to be left with a competition of sorts: which version of Palestine will turn out better? The "Islamist" Gaza area, or the western-backed West Bank?
Given Gaza is effectively cut off and under siege (Israel controls checkpoints in and out, even on the Egyptian border) this shouldn't be much of a competition. It's hard to see how anything can turn out well in Gaza, and it certainly behooves all interested western parties to do their utmost to see things turn out not just better than Gaza (after all, nearly anythung would be better than Gaza in it's current state), but exceedingly well under Abbas. However, there are several reasons this may not be that easy:
1) Corruption. The reason the voters went with Hamas in the first place was because, even though they were aware of the probable repercussions of a Hamas-led government, they were even more fed up with the long-standing history of corruption in the Abbas-led Fatah movement. What good was having international funding come in if that money went to line the pockets of ministers and other officials?
2) Syria. The despotic government here has no interest in seeing any kind of flourishing, semi-democratic state along its borders. Any such state would simply be a symbol to it's own people of how much better off they might be. Syria has already shown a willingness to intervene in Lebanon, and while they would be less explicit in their actions in the West Bank (no troops would be sent, for example), they certainly wouldn't hesitate to act (i.e., more assassinations).
3) Fervent Islamists. As with Syria, these people have no interest in seeing a flourishing semi-democracy anywhere in the Middle East. They don't have anything better to offer, they just don't want the "corruption" of western ways. Unlike even Syria, which at least has it's own national status to consider, these individuals have nothing to lose, are only interested in destruction, and are currently demonstrating this every day in Iraq.
Sadly, even if things in the West Bank start off well, I am afraid, over time, individuals who fall under category three above will begin to arrive in the area, and the faster things might improve, the sooner the response. I expect, within a year, to be reading about suicide bombers killing Palestinians. The more things change ...
Ever since Hamas gained a large majority in the national elections about 18 months ago, both the US and Israel have been pointing out that while, yes, free elections are great and all, they also have consequences. In this case, the consequences have included withholding money and goods needed by Palestinians, particularly in the strip, where 1.5 million people are crowded into 139 square miles. By comparison, Tucson has about 1/3 the population in more than 1-1/2 times the space.
Hamas has attempted to blame the deteriorating conditions, especially in the Strip, on US and Israeli influences, particularly the refusal to turn over funds earmarked for Palestine, and needed to support the government. While the lack of funds has certainly been among the main contributors to the problem, it's hard to argue with the US/Israel stance in this matter, given Hamas' expressed intent to destroy Israel and replace it with a Palestinian state. Given Hamas has offered a 10-year truce but has never backed off this founding principle of the organization, has never given any recognition of Israel's right to exist, it seems ridiculous to then be surprised at Israel's reaction. "Yes, we plan to destroy you. In the meantime, would you mind forking over some money for a few years so we can stabilize and improve our national infrastructure, the better to carry out our aims in a decade or so?"
So, barring intensive Israeli military intervention in Gaza with the intent to crush Hamas and weaken it for some time to come, we are going to be left with a competition of sorts: which version of Palestine will turn out better? The "Islamist" Gaza area, or the western-backed West Bank?
Given Gaza is effectively cut off and under siege (Israel controls checkpoints in and out, even on the Egyptian border) this shouldn't be much of a competition. It's hard to see how anything can turn out well in Gaza, and it certainly behooves all interested western parties to do their utmost to see things turn out not just better than Gaza (after all, nearly anythung would be better than Gaza in it's current state), but exceedingly well under Abbas. However, there are several reasons this may not be that easy:
1) Corruption. The reason the voters went with Hamas in the first place was because, even though they were aware of the probable repercussions of a Hamas-led government, they were even more fed up with the long-standing history of corruption in the Abbas-led Fatah movement. What good was having international funding come in if that money went to line the pockets of ministers and other officials?
2) Syria. The despotic government here has no interest in seeing any kind of flourishing, semi-democratic state along its borders. Any such state would simply be a symbol to it's own people of how much better off they might be. Syria has already shown a willingness to intervene in Lebanon, and while they would be less explicit in their actions in the West Bank (no troops would be sent, for example), they certainly wouldn't hesitate to act (i.e., more assassinations).
3) Fervent Islamists. As with Syria, these people have no interest in seeing a flourishing semi-democracy anywhere in the Middle East. They don't have anything better to offer, they just don't want the "corruption" of western ways. Unlike even Syria, which at least has it's own national status to consider, these individuals have nothing to lose, are only interested in destruction, and are currently demonstrating this every day in Iraq.
Sadly, even if things in the West Bank start off well, I am afraid, over time, individuals who fall under category three above will begin to arrive in the area, and the faster things might improve, the sooner the response. I expect, within a year, to be reading about suicide bombers killing Palestinians. The more things change ...
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