Congressional Exodus

Shortly after the last elections, as the magnitude of the Democratic victory became apparent and people started to discuss the ramifications, one item which was speculated about was how many Republicans in the House, having become comfortable in majority status, might find themselves chaffing after being newly relegated to the minority.

We may be finding out.

Deborah Pryce, a Republican from Ohio's 15th district announced today she will retire when her term ends next year, after serving 16 years in Congress. It's an open secret J. Dennis Hastert, Republican from the Illinois 14th district is expected to announce plans tomorrow to retire as well when his 11th term ends. There is even speculation he may not finish the term, necessitating a special election to fill his seat.

These aren't just an House members. Hastert is the former Speaker of the House, having filled that position longer than any other Republican in history. He's 65 now, though, and had indicated several months ago he was contemplating retirement. The potential surprise here is if he opts to leave early. There is no obvious "successor" to his seat, and if a special election were held and a Democrat were to win the seat, it could portend an ugly 2008 for Republicans.

Pryce is a bit more of a surprise. She was in the 4th position in GOP Congressional leadership prior to the last elections and is only 56. Were the Republicans to gain the majority again in 2008 or 2010, maybe even 2012 she would be well-positioned to claim an even higher role.

The last few elections have become increasingly difficult for her, though, and she only one by a fingernail last year in a race which came down to a recount. Her opponent in that race, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, has already announced she will seek a rematch next year. With 2008 shaping up as potentially another Republican disaster (The Economist has said Republican strategists are already describing 2008 as "a catastrophe" or "Armageddon", barring some unforeseen drastic change in the landscape) she may have seen the handwriting on the wall.

It's not surprising there would be some turnover. People burn out, people find other things they want to do, etc. When you are talking about 180 or so people, some of them are going to leave voluntarily. However, having two fairly high profile Republicans announce nearly simultaneously their plans to step down has the potential to open the floodgates.

If the Republican party finds itself having to defend a number of open seats (and I haven't even mentioned Arizona's own Rick Renzi here) in a steadily deteriorating political environment ... well, it may not actually be Armageddon, but it might feel like it to conservatives.

Update: Another Republican, Chip Pickering of MS-3, said yesterday he would not seek re-election in 2008 after six terms in office.

This is not a terribly competitive seat, and whoever the Republican candidate is should hold the seat comfortably. However, the retirement of Pickering, who is only 44 and would have been expected to win re-election easily (he faced to opposition last year) is another signal that some number of Republicans may not be enjoying the transition to being the minority party.