Tuesday, January 13, 2009

New Math

There has, of course, been a great deal of dialog about the Israeli assault on Gaza, a great deal of valid concern over the Palestinian civilian casualties while Israel persists in emphasizing the uninhibited rocketing of it's civilians over a number of months, and its intent to continue the assault until that capability is ended or, at least, severely diminished.

In particular, x4mr has posts here, here, here and here where he and people I generally find myself in agreement with emphasize the cruelty of the shelling and the civilian deaths ... and they are, of course, entirely correct - those deaths are cruel, regrettable, should have been preventable ... and they are, of course, correct that Israel has done much to encourage Hamas to fire rockets into Israel, including blockading food and medical supplies, doing nothing to about illegal settlements on Palestinian land, and so on. The list is long.

I still find myself disagreeing with them.

Ultimately, the calculus they apply seems to lay the responsibility of every civilian casualty, every death in Gaza, directly at the feet of Israel. This math, however, seems insupportable to me. While people might disagree as to how much effort Israel is putting into limiting civilian casualties in Gaza, I don't think anyone disputes they are, at least, making some effort. On the other side, though, the Hamas strategy seems predicated on willfully and intentionally creating the maximum possible number of civilian deaths.

I.e., Hamas is willfully sacrificing as many of their own population as they possibly can in order to place their blood on the altar of world opinion, a point which should have been made clear to all when Hamas joined Israel in rejecting Egyptian calls for a truce. Israel wants no truce until Hamas is broken, or at least more damaged than it is so far. Hamas wants no truce until they have managed to get more Palestinian civilians killed ... the more, the better.

Now, in terms of a military approach this is the best strategy they have available to them - certainly, Hamas can't hope to win a straight up fight against Israel. However, given they are the ones making the strategic decision to do so, why is Hamas not being held at least equally complicit in their deaths, if not more so, than Israel?

Ultimately, of course, Hamas' rockets into Israel were meant to provoke exactly the response it has. If Israel wants permanent peace, they will have to find some way to break the cycle of violence and show they are serious about helping Palestinians create a homeland. A good start would be, once they are done with their assualt on Gaza, to put a similar amount of effort into removing the illegal settlements in the West Bank, by force if necessary - then dare Hamas, Hezbollah and other such groups to go to the general Palestinian process and ask them if they are willing to continue the struggle, or if somehow a homelnd centered on the West Bank can be enough.

7 comments:

x4mr said...

I've posted again on the subject, and we'll have to disagree, respectfully so at least on this end.

Regarding what might resolve the matter, I imagine we are not that far apart. Where I think we differ involves the "Warsaw crush" inflicted on the day to day life of the region. If I wrapped a rope around your throat and started squeezing tighter and tighter, I think at some point you would get quite emotional and lash out.

This scenario is very difficult. I cannot find any material that is superior to the Uri Avnery letter to Obama I posted here, which of course you have already read.

Liza said...

sirocco,
US mainstream media is so full of the pro-Israel position that I really wonder why you feel compelled to add to it.

You are a pro-Israel American Jew, are you not?

Are massacres okay, sirocco?

Are massacres EVER okay?

Numerous articles have been linked to throughout the credible part of the blogosphere that clearly document the Israeli provocation last November that evoked the response that was propagandized into the triggering event.

Why did you even bother to write this?

It is rubbish.

Sirocco said...

Liza,

I wouldn't count myself as pro-Israeli. I am, for example, hugely opposed to the West-bank settlements, and a variety of other things as well.

I do, however, feel Hamas is not assigned nearly the level of responsibility for Palestinian deaths in the conflict as it deserves.

One can, of course, go back through and find anything one wants and say "this provoked Hamas" ... then go back a little further and find something that says "well, this provoked Israel". At this point, such claims are largely useless.

I am sympathetic to the notion that things like the continued Gaza blockade is a true, serious issue which needs to be addressed, but not to the extent of saying it's OK to randomly fire rockets into Israeli territory. One can argue that yes, few Israelis have been killed by these attacks, but that's a function of luck, not design ... there is only so long luck holds.

Liza said...

You're right, Sirocco. Perhaps the only provocation that counts is the one where 900,000 Palestinians were driven off their land and forced into resettlement areas.

However, please do not deny that Israel is very much into the game of assigning blame and insisting in their propoganda that their massacres are provoked while they were being peaceful.

Here's the answer to the question that I asked you, Sirocco, since you seem unable to answer it.

A massacre is NOT okay, EVER.

Sirocco said...

Of course a massacre is not ok, that goes without saying. I assumed the question was rhetorical.

I agree completely Israel is very much into the propaganda game, and has been for decades. I agree Palestinians have vast reason to be frustrated by the lack of any noticeable progress coming to some sort of mutually acceptable (if not mutually agreeable) settlement.

Where I differ (and the point of the post in the first place) is the notion Israel is completely responsible for the deaths from the recent Gaza incursion. I see Hamas at minimum as equally culpable.

I have some further thoughts on the matter, which I plan to post over the next few days, hopefully.

Liza said...

I guess that I just don't see that culpability the way you do.

These people are not fighting over rockets, they are fighting over land and resources just as they have been for the last 60 years.

You can argue that point until it snows in Del Rio and nothing will have changed.

Hamas didn't need to create a humanitarian crisis because one already existed. The world has mostly turned it's back. Why would they think that a massacre would benefit them when it did not benefit Lebanon in 2006? Yes, Lebanon is being re-built, but that money is coming from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates and for reasons that do not exist in Gaza.

It seems to me that a great many pro-Israel American Jews are horrified by the massacre in Gaza but still are reaching for explanations and reasons why it had to be this way.

There is no reason, Sirocco, other than the usual ones about expansionism and "defensible borders."

It's time for us to stop genuflecting, crossing ourselves and laying down our taxdollars at the altar of Israeli "foreign policy" and do something about the horrible conditions in Gaza. At the very least, there needs to be discussion about what has been happening over there for the last sixty years and this discussion should not be one sided and it should involve more than the usual mantras about Israel having the right to defend itself.

There are signs that people are getting fed up, at least in other parts of the world. Accusations of anti-semitism are falling on deaf ears these days. People are learning the difference between disapproving of Israel and anti-semitism.

Sadly, those who are powerful and wealthy enough to force this allegiance to Israel hold US/Mideastern foreign policy in a stranglehold. Nothing resembling peace and prosperity is possible until the Palestinians have a sovereign homeland.

Sirocco said...

I don't disagree with much of what you say. Gaza has been in crisis for years, and Israel has a great deal of responsibility for that condition.

I also agree nothing is likely to change unless the US gets actively involved and confronts Israel directly about issues such as the settlements.

Having said that, I didn't claim Hamas created a humanitarian crisis - as you note, that already existed. Rather, I claimed Hamas willfully elected to utilize a military strategy which purposely placed it's civilians at maximum risk - which, in my mind, makes them equally culpable (at least) in the deaths of those civilians - yet somehow Hamas has (IMO) largely managed to slide on the matter, with Israel being assigned all or most of the responsibility for civilian casualties in the conflict.